Will the Internet Surpass TV Next Year?

So predicts a research report just published by Microsoft. The study projects that time spent on the Internet by consumers will surpass traditional TV by June 2010. The report was based on research conducted in Europe but definitely has application to the US market.

Specifically, the study projects that by next summer Europeans on average will spend 14.2 hours per week on the Internet versus 11.5 hours on TV.

Other predictions include:

• Over the next five years Internet use on PCs will decline from 95% to 50% as other Web enabled devices such as Smartphones and IPTVs become more widely adopted


• Video capable mobile devices will grow from 31% today to 76% by 2013


• "Connected entertainment” and time shifting will become the norm as three-screen (PC, mobile device and IPTV) integration improves allowing people to watch what they want, whenever and wherever they choose


• Social connectivity will become commercialized and will enable more personalized and relevant online advertising and marketing


• Mobile devices will become the primary point of access to the Internet

Some of these predictions are similar to those reported in a major research initiative by the Pew Internet Project that I posted about in February:

http://marketingmemes.blogspot.com/2009/02/what-will-internet-look-like-in-2020.html

Of course, a good dose of skepticism is warranted with any report that predicts the future, especially one sponsored by a private enterprise like Microsoft that has a lot to gain if these predictions come true.

That said, I see little reason to doubt that most, if not all, of these projections won’t come to pass.

Joint WPP/Google Research Program – Trying to Solve the Media Mix Riddle

One of the aspects of online advertising that marketers value most is its measurability. Whether you’re running a direct response or branding initiative, the ability to measure campaign performance on the Web is generally easier, and more accurate, than most other media. That said, one frustration for many marketers has been the inability to determine the effect of their online ads in relation to ads they run on traditional media, and vice versa.

With that blind spot in mind, WPP and Google announced today that they will be kicking off a research initiative that will attempt to answer that very question. The research will study the combined effect of digital and traditional ads, and how they influence consumer perceptions and purchase decisions. Ultimately, the research should help establish criteria to help marketers make more informed decisions when making media mix and budgeting decisions.

According to a WPP press release, 11 research grants were issued out of a field of more than 120 submissions - press release can be found at:

http://www.wpp.com/NR/rdonlyres/E0AF399A-8450-408C-8BA8-C35D31DAE88C/31197/wpp_pressrelease_google_mar09_guid1f7dc1deb1b4408b.pdf?pageContent_PressRelease

The research topics are quite varied and address a range of factors that come into play when determining the impact of advertising on consumer attitudes and behavior. Here’s a sampling of the selected research topics:

• Effect of Online Exposure on Offline Buying: How Online Exposure Aids or Hurts Offline Buying by Increasing the Impact of Offline Attributes
• Does Internet Advertising Help Established Brands or Niche ("Long Tail") Brands More?
• Targeting Ads to Match Individual Cognitive Styles: A Market Test
• How do Consumers Determine What is Relevant? A Psychometric and Neuro-Scientific Study of Online Search and Advertising Effectiveness
• A Comprehensive Model of the Effects of Brand-Generated and Consumer-Generated Communications on Brand Perceptions, Sales and Share

Personally, I can’t wait to see the output.